Sanjeev Bhasin, independent analyst | Updated On: May 04, 2014 11:26 (IST)
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The week ahead should see the markets further consolidate as we head into the final phase of elections. The mood has turned cautious after higher than expected volatility crept in last week.
The Nifty ended the week down 1.3 per cent after seeing sharp intra-day movements as rumour mongering on electoral incidents hit the Street.
The high beta 'Bank Nifty' also lost 1.47 per cent for the week. The big underperformer was the CNX METAL which ended the week down 5.84 per cent, as weak corporate results from Jindal Steel and weak Chinese data saw metals bear the brunt of the selloff.
After enjoying the momentum for almost three months, Indian equity markets are finally showing some signs of cooling off. As opined last week, market participants preferred to take some money off the table this week as we are nearing the end of the election schedule. Even the quantum of buying done by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) compared over the last few months action has considerably slowed down.
This week's movement can be termed as a correction in an ongoing uptrend. The breakout above 6,820 failed to sustain and index reverted towards the lower end support of the trading range which is placed at 6,650. Moreover, the Bank Nifty's struggle to sustain above 13,000 levels led to weakness in the market. We expect Index to consolidate in the near term between 6,650 and 6,850 before resuming its trend on the upside.
In a holiday-shortened week, the rupee ended at its best level in 3weeks, while bond yields on the 10-year government paper were fixed at 8.83 per cent.
The market saw corporate results and election news flow dominate proceedings and that may continue in the week ahead also.
Globally, the Dow Jones industrial average flirted with new highs intraday and ended the week with gains of 0.9 per cent. Friday saw weakness as Ukraine news again saw the return of caution.
Oil and gold prices consolidated as increase in supplies checked the rise in prices.
Top 3 gainers on the Nifty were: Dr Reddy's Laboratories, up 4.1 per cent, ONGC, up 2.6 per cent, and Cipla, up 2 per cent.
And the top 3 losers were: Jindal Steel, down 13.1 per cent, DLF, down 9 per cent, and Tata Steel, down 8.6 per cent.
The next week will see caution being the buzzword as Ukraine violence, corporate results and electoral rumour-mongering could dominate the headlines. Raising cash levels by selling any rally would be the ideal strategy for the next fortnight.
Sanjeev Bhasin is an independent market analyst. The opinions expressed here are the personal opinions of the author. NDTV is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, suitability or validity of any information given here. All information is provided on an as-is basis. The information, facts or opinions appearing on the blog do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.
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